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Even if you are not a pro bettor, you surely have heard gamblers talk about a strategy called Fading the public. Although the concept is mainly used in sports gambling, the term has multiple applications and can be used in several areas.
In this article, I will define what fading a bet means and how it works. Let us see whether or not there is strong evidence to back up the efficacy of the strategy.
What Does Fade A Bet Mean?
When you Fade, it means you wager against a particular person, team, or market. Typically, if you dislike a bet and wager against it or refuse to place it as it seems a risky situation, you use this term and say I fade a bet. Also, if you are advised to bet on something, you can fade that advice or simply disagree with it. People use the “Fade of the Day” phrase when the trend is betting against a specific person, team, or market.
As I mentioned above, you will mostly see this term in the online sports gambling context. But it is also applied in betting against the caster-first player- in open dice games like Craps. Because if you play outside a casino setting, one of the players should bet against (or fade) every wager you place.
The Fading Craps is a relatively new variant of Craps that is named using this term. The game is also called Die Rich Craps, Open Craps, or Money Craps. This craps variant is played only with one six-sided dice and offers fewer betting options.
In this game, you should bet with the shooter as there are no don’t come or don’t pass options. This craps variant is more popular among high rollers and for this reason, the majority of players fade to like the game! By the way, Die Rich Craps is usually considered illegal across online and land-based platforms.
Important Gambling Terminology
Before you learn how to fade a bet, you must learn the alphabet of gambling language, if you want to become a high roller. Although there are several words to learn, I mention the bare minimum you must learn.
| Gambling Term | Definition |
| Action | Refers to single or multiple bets. |
| Bad beat | This simply means you have lost so bad! It refers to a very tough betting loss. |
| Beard | Is simply a messenger or runner. In fact, if you bet someone else’s money on behalf of them you are a Beard. |
| Board | Sportsbooks present all the available betting options, events, and games on a Board. |
| Chalk eaters | Are simply pro favorites. In short, if you like to always bet on big favorites, you are a Chalk eater. |
| Circled game | It refers to a game with reduced betting limits. |
| Cover | If you win against the point spread, it is called Cover. |
| Dime line | This is more a baseball-betting term. It refers to a betting line having a 10¢ straddle. |
| Exposure | Refers to the sportsbook risk margin of losing money on a specific game, result, or proposition. |
| Fade | Refers to betting against a particular person, team, trend, or market. |
| Favorite | A team or a player that has a higher odds of winning or bettors consider it as such. |
| Hedge | When you want to reduce your risk or secure some profit, you will bet on the opposite side of your original one. This is called Hedging. |
| Public | Refers to all of the casual bettors as a whole. It is also known as Squares. |
| Vigorish (or vig) | This is the commission that a bookmaker charges on every winning bet. |
What Does Fade Mean In Football?
When a football manager avoids using a specific player, it means he is fading. Also, if a manager fades players, he removes them all from starting lineups and places them on the bench.
In general, fading is a common strategy for football managers to minimize the risks of an unpleasant outcome. For example, if a player is recovering from an injury, he is most likely to be faded by the manager-kept on the bench for the first week after his return- because the manager anticipates the player will perform poorly due to the injury and recovery period. So, managers fade players in football to prevent possible failures.
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What Does Fade Mean In Sports Betting?
In most games, there is no clear public side. In general, in most games, 51% of bets will land on one side and 49% on the other side. Or in some cases, there might be 40% and 60% sides. Yet, there is no obvious public here. However, sometimes, 75% of bets gos to one side and the rest of 25% goes to the other side. In such cases, we can say that 75% represents the public or squares and it is time to pause and see if it is better to fade them.
In general, pro bettors use the term fade or the phrase “fade them” to represent they are betting against a particular team or handicapper. They commonly do this when the majority of bettors are backing one side. Pros fade because they believe the general betting public does not make sound betting decisions and is not realistic enough while placing their wagers. In fact, in the eyes of a pro sports bettor, squares are those who are not only ignorant of but they also misinterpret and misunderstand the sports betting key concepts. So, you-a pro or wise sports bettor- have all the rights to stand on the opposite side of the public. In short, if a professional bettor finds himself on the same side as the betting public, he will decrease the bet size or avoids placing it altogether.
Why Fade A Team In Sports Betting?
Bettors may fade a specific team for several reasons, and no one reason has been proven to be the best. Handicappers are a very unique kind of bettors because of their betting skills. They may fade a team because of any of the following reasons:
- the current form of the team
- the injury incidents
- the team travel schedule
- the lack of chemistry
- the lack of raw talent
- poor team coaching
- team weaknesses
- the weather
- the surface the team will play on. Especially, in the case of MLB and NFL matches.
This is where the rookies make the common fading mistakes. Remember, you should not necessarily love team B when you are fading team A. The fade gives you several pieces of evidence why that specific team should not win, and sometimes it’s more than enough to wager against them. You have several shreds of evidence showing why that particular team should not win and this is why you are fading it.
The general rule of thumb here is:
- stop fading a team when they consistently play better
- or when the betting public takes your side. In this case, you are at the same side with the squares and fading is pointless.
Why Fade A Handicapper In Sports Betting?
Almost all handicappers have used at least a couple of following terms once in their gambling life:
- a lock (a guaranteed win, like a lock bet)
- the lead pipe lock or cinch(very easy and certain to happen)
- max-unit play
- the game of the year
- the game of the century
- and the list goes on!
Trust me, it is always wise to fade the betting decisions of anyone who confidently says these types of things. Why? Because obviously, if sports betting was that easy, at least I would be a millionaire now!
Do you need more reasons?! Supposedly not! Then we can move on to see when and why you should fade the public.
Why Fade The Public?
If you are among those who think being a fan of a particular game or sport is enough to pull off sports betting, there is a piece of bad news for you. The reality is opposite to what you guys believe. Your relatively good knowledge of the sport and its players plus your passion for the team is not enough to win the bets. Because similar to any other form of gambling, you need knowledge, experience, and strategy to win your sports bets. This is why many sports gamblers try to find the best betting strategies to shorten their journey toward big wins.
Fading the public is one of the old strategies that any sports bettor comes across and tries to master. To apply this strategy, first, you need to figure out where 75% of bettors are standing. The next step is backing the opposite side.
Let me give you an example:
- The betting line for New England Patriots is -5.5, and for New York Jets is +5.5.
- The squares are taking the Patriots.
- So, you fade the public and bet on the Jets.
As I mentioned before, the idea behind fading the public is their poor betting perception costing them lots of money through their sports bets. For this reason, this simple plan seems a great strategy as it puts you on the opposite side of those poor betting decisions.
Typically, recreational bettors are chalk eaters. In other words, they always take the favorite because it has the best chance of winning the game hence winning a bet. But bookmakers are aware of this and offer appealing underdog odds. So, in this case, fading chalk eaters simply means taking the underdog. However, the strategy is easier said than done. Because wagering on the underdog does not work in every scenario.
Decades ago, fading the public could bring you a noticeable profit as sports betting markets were not as sharp as today. Thanks to technological advancements and online gambling, fading the public is not as easy and profitable as before.
A couple of years ago, bookmakers could earn more profits even if they attached unprofitable odds to favorites. Because the public used to blindly back the favorite even with the worst odds. Let’s look at the following example together:
- The Seahawks are playing the Bears.
- Seattle is the favorite with the betting line of -6.5 at modern sportsbooks.
- But old bookmakers might have set the line at -8.5, knowing that the public still takes the favorite regardless of the odds.
Bookmakers are not the only ones who got wiser over the past years. The modern public also cannot easily be fooled. Many sports punters are equipped with betting knowledge and have basic handicapping skills, so they will not fall for such a poor line. Bookmakers also know this, so they adjust by creating sharper lines. Because the squares still love to back the favorite, but they at least fall for the odds making more sense.
Fade The Line Movement
In the case of totals and spreads, when the majority of bettors- 70% or more- back one side, the bookmakers move the line. They do this to keep the money on both sides even and cover themselves. Look at the following example:
Pittsburgh Steelers are 2.5 points favorite against Dallas Cowboys. 80% of bettors are wagering on the Steelers. So, the bookmaker will raise the number to tempt bettors to bet on the Cowboys. In this example, they may raise it to -3 or -3.5 depending on the amount of money being wagered.
Watching for the line movements helps you to see who is on which side to place wiser bets. Sometimes, you need to fade the line movements, and sometimes it is better to stand where the bookmaker does.
Is Fading The Public A Reliable Strategy?
I hope you have understood by now that fading the public can be an effective strategy, as long as you do not blindly take the opposite side. Because there are multiple factors involved in a successful sports bet and you should take every single factor into account. For example, it is crucial to check out line movements to avoid taking bad odds as I explained in the previous section.
To Sum It Up…
Gone are the days when you could win big just by wagering against the public. Don’t get me wrong, though. You can still look at the public side and see the percentages and stats, but you must comprehend that wagering against the public will not always pay off. You must do your work, learn to handicap, track line movements, and have good timing.
Remember, sports betting today is harder than ever. For this reason, the public and bookies must be sharper than ever. And if you want to stay a step ahead of both, you have to learn the lessons and gamble wisely.
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