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What Is an Over-Under Bet? (The Easy Way)
Over-under bets are also known as Totals, and this is the more common word used in the US sports betting market. Such bets are represented as O-U, with all representations having the same meaning.
Sportsbooks predict and set a number for a given match in an over-under market. Typically, the number is the total points or goals scored by two teams or players. Bettors must then predict the total will be more or less than the sportsbook preset number.
Although the most common type of over-under bets is total points scored, they can be used in various sporting event statistics. For example, you will see O-U odds for:
- Individual player performance: Quarterback passing yards, rebounds for an NBA basketball player, etc.
- Team stats: Rushing yards for a football team, strikeouts by a pitcher, etc.
- Game segments: Points scored in the first half, goals in a hockey period, etc.
- Prop Bets: Total touchdowns in a football game, etc.
- Season Long: Total number of wins that a team will have in a season, etc.
How Do Sportsbooks Set The Total Lines?
I don’t want to make it complicated, as a lot of math goes into bookmakers’ odds-making process. As a general rule of thumb, the following two things mainly affect odds-making, in addition to weather and other factors involved in sports.
- Pace on offense(how fast teams play)
- Efficiency both on offense and defense
These factors are dynamic, not static. This means similar to all odds in sports betting, O-U odds change constantly.
Another factor involved is betting patterns or how the public places their wagers. Once top sportsbooks open early lines, sharp bettors and the public influence the line movement with the amount of their bets. For example, if too many bettors wager on one side, the sportsbook would modify the odds to make things even. How do they do that? By using the following strategies:
1. Vig or Vigorish
Vig or vigorish is a commission that sportsbooks set for sports bets, including over-under bets. Typically, the vig set for O-U bets is around 10%. If we translate it into American odds, both outcomes will have odds of -110, which means you must bet $110 to win $100 plus your initial wager.
If the number of wagers on both sides is exactly the same, the wagers lost by loser bettors will be paid to the winners, and the sportsbook keeps the %5 vig as profit.
2. Odds
When there is an imbalance between the number of bets wagered on the over and under side, the sportsbook can lower the odds on the under from -110 to -105 and increase the odds on the over from -110 to -115. This will encourage more bettors to bet on the under.
3. Over-Under Value
If too many people bet on one side, the sportsbook changes the value of the total to encourage bettors to bet on the side with fewer wagers. For example, if the total is 46 and too many bettors bet on the under, the sportsbook changes the value to 45, so more people bet on the over.
Understanding the Odds and Payouts + Example
Similar to point spreads, totals come with odds at or around -110. Unlike Moneyline odds, where you pick the winner of the game, there is no favorite or underdog in totals. In other words, over/under bets have the same payout on both sides. Let’s have a look at the following simple example:
Suppose BetOnline sportsbook sets the over-under line at 210.5 points for an NBA match between the Lakers and Celtics, and the odds look like this:
| O 210.5 | -110 |
| U 210.5 | -110 |
210.5 is the total points bookmakers predict will be scored in this match by both teams. If the match ends in 211 points or more and you wagered $110 on over, you will gain $100 and a total profit of $210(your initial wager plus the payout). On the other hand, if you bet $110 on the under and the match ends in 210 points or less, you will again gain $100 plus your initial wager.
The standard payout for totals is similar to the point spread bets. The sportsbook takes its vig and pays winners.
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What Is A Push In Over-Under Betting?
Oddsmakers set two types of totals: whole numbers(like 9 runs in baseball) and fractions(like 210.5 in basketball). If a bet has a fraction, there will be a clear result. But if the total is a whole number, there may be a tie or push. For example, if the total is 49 points in a football game and the actual final score is 28-21, the bet is a “push,” and bettors get their money back. If a game is canceled or postponed, different sportsbooks have different policies on whether bets are refunded or remain active. For this reason, it’s essential to check the sportsbook’s rules before placing any bets.
How To Bet Total in UFC and Boxing
Over/Under betting in combat sports is betting on how many rounds a fight will go. Hence, here is a quick recap of what you should know:
- In boxing, championship bouts are 12 rounds of 3 minutes each, while UFC title fights are 5 rounds of 5 minutes each.
- In boxing, non-title fights usually last 10 rounds or less, while in UFC, they last 3 rounds.
- If one or both fighters are known knockout artists, the over/under number will be lower. Conversely, if two fighters are more likely to go the distance, the over/under number will be higher.
- For example, when Mike Tyson fought in his prime, the over-under number for his fights was often low, as he was known for his knockout power. Meanwhile, in the Floyd Mayweather against Manny Pacquiao fight in 2015, the total was 11.5 rounds because of their exceptional defensive skills.
The aim of betting on the total in combat sports is to guess if the fight will go on for more (Over) or fewer (Under) rounds than the given number by the bookmaker. Do you think the fight will go the distance? Bet the over. But if you think the fight will end early, bet the under.
The Ultimate Strategy: Is It Better To Bet The Over or Under?
There is no definitive answer on whether it’s better to bet the over or the under. Because wagering on either side depends on the specific game, match-up, and line set by the bookmaker. However, here are some tips to help you make better decisions while choosing to wager on over or under:
- Betting on the over works better in high-scoring sports like basketball and football. Unders do better in low-scoring games like baseball or hockey.
- Study recent trends for the teams/players involved to see if they have consistently gone over or under.
- Factor in injuries, roster changes, or situational factors that could affect scoring. For example, two high-powered offenses would suggest an over.
- Consider the weather for outdoor sports. Because wind, rain, snow, etc could lower scoring.
- Generally, betting under requires defenses and game flow to slow down scoring, while betting over relies on offenses and a high tempo.
- Ensure you understand why the total is set at a certain number, and do your own analysis to decide if it’s too high or low.
- Don’t assume high totals are always “overs” and low totals “unders.” Sportsbooks aim to set lines where betting action is split.
- Shop around for the best line value among trusted and legit bookmakers.
Overall, there’s no foolproof formula for betting on totals, so do your homework on the matchups, analyze trends and factors at play, and try to find over/under lines with the most value.
Total Bets: The Safest Option for Novice Sports Bettors
After Moneyline bets, the most straightforward sports betting market, betting on the totals is the safest option for beginners because the concept is easy to grasp and follow. This is the main reason for its popularity. All you have to do is decide whether a game statistic will go over or under the number set by the sportsbook. It gives bettors a safer option to bet on and a rooting interest in all aspects of the game.
Final Thoughts
Over-under or total bets provide an exciting way to wager on sports without having to pick an outright winner. By betting on whether teams will combine to score over or under a set projected total, you simply have to analyze their offensive and defensive capabilities relative to that number. But it’s not just about luck – the key to success with over/under bets is studying trends, injuries, weather reports, and other factors that may influence scoring.
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